How many horses will I beat?

A question for YOU ahead of the 2023 Man v Horse Marathon

As some of you may know (I don’t expect this to be on your calendar…), tomorrow is the 2023 Man v Horse Marathon in Llanwrtyd Wells, Wales. I’ll be competing against ~600 runners and ~60 horses over a 22 mile course that includes country trail, rivers, roads and plenty of those green Welsh hills. Before the race (and in lieu of a post this week), I’d like to pose a question to you all… how many horses do you think I’ll beat in the race? 50? 30? 10? None? Reply to let me know… I’m just genuinely curious! And the person who guesses the closest can choose a topic for me to cover in this newsletter in the next few weeks.

To make this is a little less of a guess for you, I’ve included the following hints:

1. I recently completed the Philadelphia Broad Street run in 56 minutes. This is a 10-mile race that is extremely flat, and therefore fast, but it should give you a good idea of my fitness level.

2. I successfully completed an ~18 mile run about 2 weeks ago, so I’m fairly confident I’ll be able to complete the race in a reasonable amount of time.

3. Here is a link to the race results from prior years, which indicate how fast the humans and horses typically run.

4. Yes, a human has won the entire race before. Yes, his name was Ricky Lightfoot. Light. Foot.

Finally, in order to tie this to what I normally write about in this newsletter, I’ll provide a book recommendation for you: Superforecasting by Phil Tetlock. It covers the science of prediction and how we can all make better ones. In a world changing so quickly, refining one’s ability to anticipate the future is critical… and the best way to improve is actually through practice.

Have a good weekend, and good luck with your guesses!

Thank you,

Brendan