Searching for signals
My favorite books on systems thinking, human behavior, and quantitative topics
Searching for signals
As I’ve navigated life and work over the years, I’ve often had to make decisions without knowing exactly the right answer. Sometimes, I’d encounter office politics, and I wouldn’t know how to best handle it. Other times, I’d encounter ambiguity or complexity with a project, and I wouldn’t know if I’d succeed (or how). There were relationships to start (and end), jobs to find (and leave), and cities to move to (and from).
Amid this change and confusion in my life, I found comfort and clarity within the pages of several books. Books taught me that I wasn’t alone. Dozens of scientists, philosophers, and authors had wrestled with the same confusing situations and decisions before, and I realized they’d figured out helpful mental models I could use to find my footing. As I read these books, I started organizing the mental models into different categories. And I started calling the models “signals”, because I felt that they could signal the right decision or action to take in a given situation. I thought of a signal as a lighthouse in the distance, piercing the fog and the darkness to guide me in the right direction.
(Read my introductory article on signals here)
Today, I’d like to share a few books I’ve found helpful for learning these different signals. They are sourced primarily from the fields of systems thinking, human behavior/psychology and statistics/decision science. In future articles, I’ll further cover these signals in more detail, weaving in stories from history and business to illustrate how you can incorporate them into your own thinking. I have written about some signals already; I included links to those where applicable.
These book recommendations are not dogma. They should be discarded if they don’t draw you in. But I do hope you give them a shot. Don’t worry about the technical language in some of the descriptions. These books are all intended for a general audience, and I selected them specifically for their readability.
The List
Thinking in Systems, Donella Meadows: A concise, approachable primer on systems thinking. Systems are everywhere in our lives, and they are usually responsible for much of life’s complexity. A government is a system. A local restaurant is a system. A family is a system. All systems have elements, interconnections, and goals. And systems tend to reach or miss their goals in common patterns, or “archetypes.” Learn to think in systems and you’ll learn to create better systems at work and home.
Example signals: Policy resistance, Limiting factors, Rule beating
The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning Organization, Peter Senge: A management classic that shows how to specifically apply systems thinking to business. Without systems thinking, we tend to break down business problems into smaller pieces. We see the world only as the isolated events reported to us. “Sales are down.” “Turnover is up.” “Interest rates are steady.” And it’s hard to make sense of it all. Senge argues that systems thinking can help us look beyond isolated events to see the longer-term patterns of change in a business.
Example signals: Shifting the burden, Eroding/drifting goals
Behave: The Biology of Humans at Our Best and Worst, Robert Sapolsky: An alien touches down in Midtown Manhattan. It walks (teleports?) to the 42nd Street Library to learn all there is to know about human behavior. This is the #1 book for that erudite ET. Why? Behave is uniquely comprehensive and clear. Comprehensive: it explains human behavior from every possible lens (biology, hormones, environment, evolution, and culture). Clear: it’s filled with anecdotes and Sapolsky’s long-haired humor, which helped someone new to the science (like me) follow along. Investor Tyler Hogge says that, “explaining complex topics in simple ways is not only the sign of a great communicator but also the strongest sign of intelligence.” Sapolsky is a great communicator.
Example signals: Competition vs. cooperation, Displaced aggression, In-group vs. out-group biases
The Laws of Human Nature, Robert Greene: Have you ever worked with a difficult person? Maybe they were unorganized or self-centered. Or maybe they didn’t respect you. You think in circles. What should I do? Should I flatter them? Should I fight them? Should I ignore them? It’s confusing and overwhelming. “Hell”, Sartre chimes in, “is other people”. This book is about how to better understand people, but not through Sapolsky’s scientific lens. Greene is practical, poised to unveil the ugly truth about how some people operate through tales from history and business. Many of his prescriptions (e.g. “The Law of Defensiveness: Soften People’s Resistance by Confirming Their Self-Opinion”) can seem manipulative and “dark triad”. In my experience, though, I’ve found them to be generally insightful.
Example signals: The Shadow (e.g. we all have a “dark side”)
Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions, Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths: How to think like a computer scientist to make better decisions. Focuses on optimal stopping, the explore/exploit trade-off, game theory and more. I successfully used the 37% Rule in my NYC apartment search this past summer. Proud nerd.
Example signals: The 37% Rule, Rich get richer effect/Matthew effect/preferential attachment
The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t, Nate Silver: How to separate what is both true and valuable information (“signal”) from what is not (“noise”) to make better predictions in sports, business, science and more. Inspiration for my general definition of signal. My favorite chapter is the one on economics / finance. It details why it’s so challenging to forecast financial markets and the economy.
Example signals: Bayes’ rule, Overfitting
Democratic Reading
One last thing. Educational reading is for you, me, and everyone. Sometimes, writers online attempt to articulate the value of reading by listing out the eminent people who have claimed it to be an essential, even non-negotiable, practice. The list typically includes people such as Warren Buffett, Oprah Winfrey, Elon Musk, etc. Reading is not an exclusive ritual only for insanely smart and talented go-getters.
We all can—and should—be readers, even if it’s only a few minutes each day.
Thank you for browsing my book list, and I’ll see you next time.
Thanks for reading!
Signals & Stories is a newsletter about finding clearer signals that lead to better decisions—in life and business.
If you like Signals & Stories, feel free to share with a friend or co-worker.
—Brendan