An introduction to signals
Improve your thinking by recognizing life's recurring patterns
In life, we often wade through a thick fog of uncertainty. Imagining we could accomplish this or try that, we eventually must choose a path and build a career. Encountering workplaces that may be political or competitive, we must strategize, maneuver, and execute to reach our goals. We must adapt to endless complexities: difficult people, unforeseen problems, competing priorities, addictive technologies.
Life is confusing.
But that doesn’t mean we ought to live it confused. Psychologists and behavioral economists have found recurring patterns in how people behave in certain situations. Systems experts have found recurring patterns in how “systems” (businesses, nations, etc.) typically succeed or fail. I call these recurring patterns signals. If we can study and absorb these signals, we can apply their lessons to our own lives. We can feel more confident in our decisions, less confused by life’s complexities. Think of a signal as a lighthouse in the distance, piercing through the fog and the darkness to guide us in the right direction.
I have compiled signals from dozens of books on systems thinking, human psychology, statistics, and more. Some examples of signals include:
Policy resistance: When a person in power tries to enforce a sudden change without considering second-order effects, they typically make the situation worse. Example: Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceaușescu enforced a sudden, top-down ban on birth control that further lowered Romania’s declining birth rates.
Cargo culting: Groups of people often blindly and superficially imitate the successful practices of others, even if those practices don’t apply to their specific situation. Example: Startup Cargo Cults in Silicon Valley
Drifting goals: When individuals or teams set a goal, they often slowly fail because they allow themselves to move the goalpost lower over time, leading to drifting and declining performance. Example: Me starting a new habit on January 1st. First I stick with it, then I cut myself too much slack, then I quit.
You may nod and recognize these patterns from your own experiences. Signals put a name to them. And they help structure your thinking, so you can appropriately decide what to do next. In this way, a signal is just a special kind of mental model that applies to how people or systems behave.
Helpful signals are:
Noticeable: You can readily “see” a signal when it happens. There is a unique, distinguishable pattern.
Meaningful & Actionable: Once you see a signal, you can feel confident that you know what to do next. If you encounter policy resistance, for example, you know not to push harder to enforce the policy.
Explainable: You can explain the signal to other people in simple terms. You can coordinate and act as a team accordingly.
Transferable: The signal applies to different fields and contexts, indicating it is foundational in some way. For example, the limits to growth signal applies to farming, manufacturing, personal improvement and more.
Modular: The signal can be combined with other signals to sketch a richer, more nuanced perspective of a situation.
Rigorous: The signal is backed by solid evidence. It’s not a speculation, snatched from inspirational anecdotes or quotes from eminent people. It is a rigorous concept that begets rigorous conclusions.
Without signals, we might experience life as a series of confusing, isolated events. We might feel we’re always reacting to problems we can’t anticipate or group dynamics we can’t decipher. The key is to understand the underlying, generalized pattern, the signal cutting through the noise, that ultimately helps us make the right decision.
In Signals & Stories, we will explore these signals, using stories from history to illustrate how you can incorporate them into your own thinking.
To get started, check out a few of the early signals I’ve written about:
In the next edition of Signals & Stories, I’ll discuss some of the books I’ve found helpful to further learn about signals.
Thanks for reading!
Signals & Stories is a newsletter about finding clearer signals that lead to better decisions—in life and business.
If you like Signals & Stories, feel free to share with a friend or colleague.
—Brendan